How often do the four exchanges disagree on one coin? On the 1-day window, 8 of 33 coins agree; on 7 and 30 days, agreement is always short
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Reading the Index — analysis pieces that read the Satoshi Index numbers one angle at a time. Figures here are from the October 27, 2026 snapshot at 14:29 KST (05:29 UTC), top 100 by 1-day, 7-day and 30-day return, with the combined four-exchange figure (Hyperliquid, Lighter, dYdX, Pacifica) read side by side with each exchange pill.
The long/short bar on the Satoshi Index front page is a four-exchange total. Press the exchange pills one at a time, though, and the same coin often leans a different way on each venue. This piece counts, coin by coin, how often the four actually look the same direction.
At a glance
- On October 27 the Satoshi Index (Satoshi Note's public board that combines the positions of top-return accounts on Hyperliquid, Lighter, dYdX and Pacifica) held $1,301M of 1-day positions, of which Hyperliquid was $1,059M (81%), Lighter 13%, dYdX 4%, Pacifica 2%.
- Of 33 coins held by 5+ accounts on at least three exchanges, the dollar direction agrees on every exchange for only 8 (6 all-short: LIT, XPL, BNB, LINK, AVAX, CRV; 2 all-long: ZEC, XMR). BTC, ETH, HYPE and SOL all split. On 7 days 19 of 45 agree, on 30 days 18 of 44, and every one of those is short.
- The combined bar mostly tracks Hyperliquid, and coins where the exchanges agree are rare. Not a price forecast, not a position recommendation.
Terms
- Exchange pill: the Hyperliquid / Lighter / dYdX / Pacifica buttons at the top of a coin page. Press one to keep only that exchange's top accounts.
- Agreement: on every exchange where 5+ accounts hold the coin, long dollars exceed short dollars (all-long) or fall short of them (all-short). Coins present on only two exchanges are excluded.
81% of the combined figure is Hyperliquid
| Exchange | Top accounts | Accounts with positions | 1-day dollars | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperliquid | 191 | 114 | $1,059.4M | 81% |
| Lighter | 111 | 94 | $165.7M | 13% |
| dYdX | 108 | 107 | $50.4M | 4% |
| Pacifica | 89 | 73 | $25.6M | 2% |
By account the four are comparable at 191, 111, 108 and 89, but by dollars Hyperliquid is 81% (88% on 7 days, 90% on 30 days). The dollar direction of the combined bar is effectively set by Hyperliquid; Lighter, dYdX and Pacifica have a voice only in the head count.
The 1-day window — 8 of 33 coins agree
33 coins are held by 5+ accounts on at least three exchanges. The dollar direction matches on every one of those exchanges for 8.
| Agreement | Coins |
|---|---|
| All short (6) | LIT · XPL · BNB · LINK · AVAX · CRV |
| All long (2) | ZEC · XMR |
Narrow it to coins with 5+ accounts on all four exchanges and it is 6 of 26. Count by accounts instead of dollars and it drops to 6 of 33. The large coins all split.
| Coin | Hyperliquid long share | Lighter | dYdX | Pacifica | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 61% | 77% | 45% | 43% | 62% |
| ETH | 19% | 93% | 76% | 34% | 31% |
| HYPE | 77% | 95% | 88% | 31% | 77% |
| SOL | 22% | 80% | 34% | 3% | 32% |
| NEAR | 60% | 6% | 34% | 40% | — |
BTC is long on Hyperliquid and Lighter, short on dYdX and Pacifica. ETH is 93% and 76% long on Lighter and dYdX, 19% long on Hyperliquid, and the combined figure lands on Hyperliquid's side at 31%. SOL is long only on Lighter (80%) and short on the other three. The combined long share sits so close to the Hyperliquid column because of the 81% in the table above.
7 and 30 days — more agreement, and it is always short
| Window | Coins compared | Agree | Of which all-long | Coins on all four | Of which agree |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 33 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 6 |
| 7 days | 45 | 19 | 0 | 29 | 13 |
| 30 days | 44 | 18 | 0 | 27 | 10 |
Widen the window to 7 or 30 days and agreement rises to 19 and 18 coins, but not one of them is all-long. The combined long share is 9% on 7 days and 10% on 30 days: on the longer windows the four lean short together, and the splitting is mostly a 1-day phenomenon. The 1-day list is picked on yesterday's return, so a split there says, roughly, that yesterday's winners were different people on each exchange.
Limits
- Agreement is measured in dollars; by account count it is lower (6 of 33 on 1 day).
- Exchanges with fewer than 5 accounts in a coin are left out of that coin's comparison, so coins on the smaller venues (Pacifica, dYdX) are often excluded.
- The figures cover the top 100 accounts by return, not the direction of each exchange's total open interest.
- dYdX is aggregated every 3 hours and can lag the other three.
FAQ
Is the combined bar enough on its own?
Since 81% of the combined dollars are Hyperliquid, the combined bar is nearly the Hyperliquid pill. To see Lighter, dYdX or Pacifica you have to press their pills. ETH is the example: Lighter and dYdX are in the 90s and 70s long, and the combined figure reads 31%.
Are coins where the exchanges agree more reliable?
They say only that top accounts hold the same side regardless of venue: 8 coins on 1 day, 18 on 30 days. That says nothing about where the price goes next.
Where can I see these numbers myself?
On the Satoshi Index (satoshinote.io/traders) coin pages, under the exchange pills and the window pills. They open without login and refresh every 30 minutes (dYdX every 3 hours).
This column was written by the Satoshi Note team from a reading of the Satoshi Index figures. It does not forecast price direction or recommend positions. Per-exchange figures are under the exchange pills on each Satoshi Index coin page; per-window figures are under the window pills.